Generative AI for Strategic Foresight and Design Fiction

25 September 2024
AI and Architecture All Editorial

In a constantly evolving world, strategic foresight has become indispensable for companies and regions seeking to anticipate future challenges. Simultaneously, Design Fiction (speculative fiction) offers an innovative approach to imagining and visualizing possible future scenarios. The rise of generative AI, especially in image generation, is revolutionizing these fields by providing new tools and perspectives. How do these technologies integrate into strategic foresight and Design Fiction? Let’s explore these promising synergies.

Understanding Strategic Foresight and Design Fiction

What is Strategic Foresight?

Strategic foresight, is a methodical approach aimed at anticipating future developments to better guide current decisions[1]. As outlined in the Manual of Strategic Foresight[2], it relies on the analysis of trends, uncertainties, and potential disruptions to develop foresight scenarios. This approach is essential for companies and territories seeking to prepare for future challenges.

In his Manual of Strategic Foresight[2], Michel Godet highlights several key elements for understanding and practicing strategic foresight. He emphasizes the necessity of anticipating future changes while integrating uncertainty into decision-making processes. Godet develops the idea that foresight is not about predicting the future but rather exploring different scenarios to prepare organizations to face various possibilities. He also underscores the importance of collective participation, engaging stakeholders to co-create visions of the future. Finally, he introduces methodological tools such as consequence trees and scenario matrices, which help analyze potential disruptions and proactively inform strategic decisions.

Strategic Foresight in Action

Strategic foresight involves using various methods, such as system dynamics modeling[3], to understand possible futures. Tools like Strategic Foresight Analysis[4] allow organizations to explore different scenarios, helping them remain agile in a changing environment. This approach is particularly prominent in innovation management and scenario planning.

NATO’s Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) initiative is a crucial process for anticipating future security challenges and potential long-term opportunities. Launched to help member states prepare for geopolitical and technological uncertainties, this initiative focuses on identifying global trends and drivers of change likely to influence the international security environment over the next 20 to 30 years. The SFA relies on the analysis of areas such as demographic shifts, climate change, technological advancements, and geopolitical dynamics, providing a foundation for the development of defense and security strategies. It is designed to strengthen NATO’s ability to anticipate, plan, and adapt to upcoming transformations, thereby contributing to the alliance’s stability and resilience.

Strategic foresight is also supported by books, courses, and certifications designed to help professionals build futures-thinking skills. The European Commission actively promotes foresight initiatives, releasing reports such as the Strategic Foresight Report to guide policy-making at the EU level. Additionally, strategic foresight consulting and software tools have been developed to support decision-makers in both the public and private sectors.

Design Fiction: Imagining the Future through Creativity

Design Fiction (speculative design) is an innovative method that uses storytelling and prototyping to explore possible futures[5]. By creating tangible artifacts from a hypothetical future, it allows for the materialization of abstract ideas and stimulates reflection on the social, economic, and technological implications of these futures[6]. It is commonly applied in speculative design studios and speculative thinking workshops.

In “Design Fiction: A Short Essay on Design, Science, Fact, and Fiction” (2009), Julian Bleecker explores the concept of Design Fiction, an approach that uses storytelling and speculative artifacts to imagine possible futures. Bleecker explains that Design Fiction goes beyond traditional science fiction by incorporating concrete design elements to make future scenarios tangible and credible. He argues that creating objects or prototypes from a hypothetical future not only allows for the exploration of abstract ideas but also stimulates debate on the social, technological, and ethical implications of these futures. The essay also highlights the importance of speculative fiction as an innovation tool, focusing on the disruptive potential of technologies and provoking critical reflections on the future.

Differences and Complementarities between Strategic Foresight and Design Fiction

Although strategic foresight and Design Fiction share the same goal of anticipating the future, they differ in cultural and methodological contexts[7]. Strategic foresight in France focuses on collective participation and systems modeling, as detailed in the manual of strategic foresight PDF[8]. Strategic foresight is often used in international contexts, such as by the European Commission in its Strategic Foresight Report[9].

The 2020 Strategic Foresight Report by the European Commission highlights several key points to strengthen the resilience of the European Union in the face of future challenges. It identifies four main dimensions of resilience: social and economic, geopolitical, green, and digital. The report emphasizes the need to enhance the capacity for anticipation and preparedness in response to crises, particularly in the areas of health, climate change, and digital transformation. It also underscores the importance of integrating strategic foresight into EU public policies to better address emerging trends, global shocks, and uncertainties, while promoting a sustainable, inclusive, and technologically advanced economy.

Design Fiction, or speculative design, complements these approaches by providing an experiential dimension[10]. It engages a wider audience and encourages deep discussions about possible futures. Examples of Design Fiction projects include collaborative workshops and Design Fiction workshops, which explore the implications of emerging technologies[11].

The Integration of Generative AI into These Processes

The Role of Generative AI

Generative AI, especially those specialized in image generation, has become a powerful tool for Design Fiction and strategic foresight[12]. It allows for the rapid creation of realistic visual representations of future scenarios, making communication and engagement around these ideas much easier[13].

Benefits and Opportunities

  • Speed and Efficiency: Generate complex images in record time using generative AI tools[14].
  • Innovation: Explore new concepts through algorithmic creativity, as demonstrated by many Design Fiction examples[15].
  • Accessibility: Make foresight more tangible for a non-specialist audience by using AI-generated visuals in Strategic Foresight workshops[16].

Generative AI is transforming the way professionals approach Strategic Foresight and Innovation, providing tools to visualize and experiment with alternative futures[17]. Strategic foresight courses and certifications are now integrating these technologies into their programs[18].

Generative AI Tools Useful for Strategic Foresight

Generative AI is an essential asset for visualizing and exploring future scenarios in the context of strategic foresight. Here is a list of generative AI tools, categorized by their ability to generate images or text:

  • MidJourney (Image)
    • Allows the creation of visual representations of hypothetical futures, such as futuristic cities, emerging technologies, or speculative landscapes.
  • DALL·E (Image)
    • Generates realistic or abstract images from text descriptions, ideal for illustrating complex foresight concepts.
  • ChatGPT (Text)
    • Helps generate narrative scenarios, trend summaries, or speculative dialogues to enrich strategic thinking.
  • GPT-4 (Text)
    • Creates detailed textual scenarios, offers recommendations based on future trends, and helps simulate strategic advisory discussions.
  • Runway ML (Image/Video)
    • Generates images and videos from prompts, useful for visualizing future prototypes and innovations in foresight scenarios.
  • Artbreeder (Image)
    • Merges and generates speculative visuals of environments, objects, or future characters, stimulating visual thinking.
  • Deep Dream Generator (Image)
    • Generates surreal images, ideal for illustrating unexpected and creative visions of alternative futures.
  • Sudowrite (Text)
    • A narrative text generation tool, enabling the writing of speculative stories, dialogues, and scenario ideas in the context of Design Fiction.

These tools are valuable for materializing and exploring visions of the future, both visually and narratively, thus facilitating the process of strategic thinking and planning.

Practical Applications: My Projects “Deus Ex Urbana” and “LithiGEO: Echoes of an Industrial Future”

About Me

I am Pierre Châtel-Innocenti, an architectural photographer based in Paris, known for my expertise in interior photography and artistic visual projects. Specializing in capturing the essence of architectural spaces, I work with communication agencies, real estate developers, and luxury, hospitality, and design sectors. My work combines creativity and technical skill to deliver high-quality visuals that meet the needs of professionals seeking distinction. Whether for advertising campaigns, real estate promotions, or highlighting prestigious locations, my photographic eye adds significant value to each project.

The Relevance of Design Fiction in the Context of Climate Change

Climate change, already underway and expected to intensify in the coming years, poses a major challenge on all levels: society, the planet, and individuals. In this context, Design Fiction becomes a highly relevant tool for exploring possible futures and reflecting on the consequences of ecological, social, and technological transformations.

By offering speculative narratives and visual artifacts, Design Fiction allows us to materialize alternative futures and make potential scenarios tangible. Whether imagining cities submerged by rising sea levels, societies grappling with energy crises, or lifestyles radically transformed by the ecological transition, this tool provides a creative framework to ask crucial questions: How will we live tomorrow? What will the new social and economic dynamics be? How will individuals adapt to these upheavals?

The strength of Design Fiction lies in its ability to create objects, spaces, and stories that engage stakeholders—whether decision-makers, scientists, or the general public—in projecting themselves into a possible future and considering the necessary solutions or adaptations to face inevitable changes.

By integrating Design Fiction into strategic thinking about climate change, it becomes possible not only to anticipate future crises but also to imagine new ways of living and coexisting on a profoundly transformed planet.

“Deus Ex Urbana”

In my project “Deus Ex Urbana”, I merge architectural photography with generative art to imagine a future shaped by climate change[19]. Using generative AI, I create urban landscapes in ruins, depicting a society in transformation. This work is a continuation of my series “Mémoire de Paysages” and “ReMIX”, which explore the relationship between urbanity and space.

Rue parisienne enveloppée de voiles dorés avec la Tour Eiffel en arrière-plan, symbolisant la transformation de l'architecture urbaine
Rue parisienne enveloppée de drapés dorés avec la Tour Eiffel en arrière-plan, évoquant la disparition de l’architecture sous des voiles.
Paris inondé avec des péniches naviguant autour de l'Arc de Triomphe, scène post-apocalyptique de la série Deus Ex Urbana
Paris inondé avec des péniches naviguant autour de l’Arc de Triomphe, reflétant les conséquences d’un effondrement climatique
Personnes entourant un arbre dans un ascenseur, symbolisant la lutte entre nature et urbanisation dans un environnement urbain
Une foule dans un ascenseur entourant un arbre, représentant la lutte pour réintégrer la nature dans les espaces urbains.
Éolienne géante au milieu de manifestants dans une rue de Paris, illustrant la transition énergétique et les enjeux sociaux
Une éolienne érigée en plein cœur de Paris lors d’une manifestation, symbolisant la transition vers des énergies renouvelables et les tensions sociales qui en découlent
Tempête de sable recouvrant Paris avec vue sur la Tour Eiffel.
Une vision apocalyptique de Paris sous une tempête de sable recouvrant la ville et ses monuments. Cette image surréaliste de Deus Ex Urbana symbolise la force implacable de la nature face à l’urbanisation moderne.
Maison parisienne transportée sur un camion sur une route, illustrant la mobilité des structures dans un monde en mutation
Une maison parisienne transportée sur un camion sur une autoroute, symbolisant la mobilité et l’adaptation des structures dans un monde changeant
Animaux exotiques dans le Jardin des Tuileries à Paris avec le Louvre en arrière-plan.
Découvrez la fusion entre la nature sauvage et la ville dans cette image captivante de la série Deus Ex Urbana. Les animaux exotiques déambulent dans le cadre historique de Paris, un mélange saisissant de nature et d’architecture.
Tour Eiffel dans un paysage désertique rappelant Monument Valley.
Dans cette œuvre surréaliste de la série Deus Ex Urbana, la Tour Eiffel se mêle au décor de Monument Valley, créant une juxtaposition frappante entre le désert américain et l’architecture parisienne
Salle de bain remplie de sable avec deux hommes, symbolisant l'invasion de la nature dans un espace domestique parisien
Salle de bain remplie de sable avec deux hommes, représentant l’invasion de la nature dans les espaces intérieurs
Cube noir géant dans une forêt entourée d'une ville, symbolisant l’inconnu et la puissance dans un monde en transformation
Un cube noir imposant au milieu d’une forêt et entouré par la ville, symbolisant le mystère et l’influence du pouvoir dans un monde en mutation
Vache dans une cour urbaine entourée de murs de béton, symbolisant le contraste entre nature et urbanisme
Une vache se tenant dans une cour urbaine encadrée de murs de béton, représentant le contraste entre nature et ville.
Tour Eiffel envahie par la végétation, symbolisant la reconquête de la nature sur l’architecture urbaine dans un monde post-apocalyptique
La Tour Eiffel engloutie par une forêt luxuriante, rappelant l’éphémérité de l’architecture humaine face à la nature
Scène intérieure surréaliste avec des champignons géants envahissant un appartement parisien, symbolisant l'intrusion de la nature dans l'espace urbain
Une scène intérieure où la nature envahit un appartement, contrastant avec les cheminées industrielles à l’extérieur
Basilique du Sacré-Cœur entourée de jungle et d’immeubles abandonnés.
L’image montre la Basilique de Montmartre au cœur d’une jungle envahie. Cette œuvre de la série Deus Ex Urbana dévoile un Paris transformé par une nature débordante.
Cycliste emporté dans une mini-tornade dans une rue parisienne, symbole de la fragilité face aux catastrophes climatiques dans Deus Ex Urbana
Un livreur à vélo emporté dans une tornade en plein Paris, symbolisant l’imprévisibilité de la vie urbaine dans un contexte de crise climatique
Cratère géant au centre de Paris avec la Tour Eiffel et des gratte-ciel, symbolisant une catastrophe post-apocalyptique urbaine
Cratère monumental au cœur de Paris, illustrant une catastrophe urbaine post-apocalyptique.
Inondation apocalyptique engloutissant Paris, avec des vagues déferlant sur les bâtiments, symbolisant la fragilité des infrastructures urbaines face aux catastrophes naturelles
Inondation massive dévastant les rues de Paris, mettant en scène la fragilité des infrastructures face aux catastrophes naturelles
Immense iceberg près de la Tour Eiffel sur la Seine.
Un iceberg monumental navigue le long de la Seine, une représentation poétique de l’impact du réchauffement climatique dans le décor iconique de Paris.
Mur de béton avec des barbelés entourant un jardin communautaire dans un paysage urbain, explorant la résilience des habitants face aux structures oppressantes
Un mur imposant encadrant un espace de jardinage urbain, illustrant la résilience face aux infrastructures bétonnées
Des cerfs traversant une rue dans une banlieue parisienne entre des immeubles en béton, image surréaliste de la série Deus Ex Urbana
Des cerfs traversant une banlieue bétonnée, symbolisant la réappropriation de l’espace urbain par la nature.
Appartement parisien envahi par de la mousse verte, avec des cheminées industrielles à l'extérieur, symbolisant l'invasion de la nature dans la ville
Un intérieur parisien recouvert de mousse, soulignant l’intrusion de la nature dans les espaces urbains
Maison suspendue au-dessus d'une falaise en Normandie, symbolisant la vulnérabilité de l’architecture face aux éléments naturels
Une maison suspendue au-dessus de l’océan sur une falaise, capturant la précarité de l’architecture face aux forces naturelles
Totem fait de voitures empilées avec des personnes en prière, symbolisant le consumérisme et l'adoration des objets matériels
Totem constitué de voitures empilées avec des personnes en prière autour, illustrant le consumérisme moderne
Maison moderniste isolée en béton avec une lumière chaleureuse, entourée d’appareils abandonnés dans un paysage désert, de la série Deus Ex Urbana
Une maison solitaire éclairée, avec un paysage jonché d’appareils abandonnés, symbolisant l’isolement humain face à la consommation massive.
Rue en ruines à Paris avec des passerelles industrielles et l'Arc de Triomphe, symbolisant un futur dystopique
Une rue en ruines à Paris, avec l’Arc de Triomphe en arrière-plan, montrant l’effondrement urbain.

With generative AI, I capture the evolution of cities, reflecting both the fragility and resilience of architectural structures in the face of change[20]. The works are accompanied by short stories, enriching the narrative and offering an immersive experience. This project perfectly illustrates the concept of Design Fiction, presenting a vision of speculative everything design fiction and social dreaming.

LithiGEO: Echoes of an Industrial Future

With “LithiGEO: Echoes of an Industrial Future”, I propose a photographic graphic novel, a genre that combines the visual richness of photography with the sequential storytelling of a comic book[21]. The narrative takes the reader into an alternate reality where Paris, faced with an environmental and energy crisis, reinvents itself through lithium-powered industrialization[22].

Photorealistic. Modern day. the contemporary reindustrialization of the Canal Saint-Martin in Paris, where small, smoke-billowing manufactories line the quays. On the canal, little boats glide along, laden with piles of black ore. Workers in bright colored security gear are busily unloading the ore by hand onto the docks, the air filled with a sense of industrious energy. Capture the blend of old and new as the historical charm of the canal meets the resurgence of manual industry in an urban setting. Morning light, Soft lighting, muted colors, calm mood, centered composition. –ar 4:5 Job ID: b224309f-83da-4ff8-b064-9d116635e940

Each photo serves as a window into this futuristic world, accompanied by short texts and fictional yet credible news articles. This approach enriches the narrative, providing an additional layer of authenticity and inviting the reader to reflect on the implications of such scenarios[23]. It is a prime example of Design Fiction methodology applied to strategic foresight.

The Benefits of Design Fiction in Strategic Foresight

The use of Design Fiction in Strategic Foresight helps materialize future scenarios, making the concepts more accessible and engaging[24]. Strategic Foresight consultants recommend this approach to stimulate innovation and critical thinking within organizations[25].

In their article “Strategic Foresight in Corporate Organizations” (2010), Vecchiato and Roveda examine how companies can use strategic foresight to anticipate and respond to technological and social uncertainties. They highlight that organizations operate in increasingly complex and dynamic environments, where the ability to anticipate change has become a key factor for competitiveness. Their work emphasizes the importance of integrating strategic foresight methods to identify emerging trends and potential disruptions, and to guide decision-making in uncertain contexts. They also analyze the different methodologies used in strategic foresight, such as scenario mapping and risk management, and conclude that proactive anticipation of long-term changes can offer a significant strategic advantage to companies by preparing them for future disruptions.

Training programs in strategic foresight now include Design Fiction as an educational tool[26]. Strategic Foresight courses and Design Fiction studio workshops provide participants with the opportunity to practice these methods[27].

Conclusion

The integration of generative AI into strategic foresight and Design Fiction opens new avenues for imagining and preparing for the future[28]. By combining the rigorous analysis of Strategic Foresight with the creativity of Design Fiction, and using the innovative capabilities of AI, professionals can create inspiring and insightful visions of what lies ahead[29].

My projects, “Deus Ex Urbana” and “LithiGEO: Echoes of an Industrial Future”, perfectly illustrate how generative AI can enrich these disciplines, providing concrete and inspiring examples for all those interested in the future of our societies and urban environments[30].

Interested in exploring further how generative AI can enrich your foresight strategies or speculative narratives? Contact me to discuss collaborations or to learn more about my projects like Deus Ex Urbana and LithiGEO. Together, let’s visualize possible futures and transform your ideas into captivating stories!

For more information on these approaches, explore resources like the “Strategic Foresight Primer” from the European Commission or Julian Bleecker’s works on Design Fiction.

Keywords: strategic foresight, prospective stratégique, Design Fiction, generative AI, image generation, system dynamics modeling, Strategic Foresight methodologies, Design Fiction examples, architectural photography, climate change, energy transition, Design Fiction methodology, speculative design, Strategic Foresight and Innovation.

References

  1. Godet, M. (1994). From Anticipation to Action: A Handbook of Strategic Prospective. UNESCO Publishing.
  2. Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). Manuel de prospective stratégique. Dunod.
  3. Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
  4. NATO. (2017). Strategic Foresight Analysis. NATO Headquarters.
  5. Dunne, A., & Raby, F. (2013). Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, and Social Dreaming. MIT Press.
  6. Bleecker, J. (2009). Design Fiction: A short essay on design, science, fact and fiction. Near Future Laboratory.
  7. Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.
  8. Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). Manuel de prospective stratégique. Dunod.
  9. European Commission. (2020). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report. Publications Office of the European Union.
  10. Sterling, B. (2013). Design Fiction: diegetic prototypes and the curious case of Norway. Journal of Design and Science.
  11. MIT Media Lab. (2021). Design Fiction Workshop. MIT.
  12. Riedl, M. O. (2016). Computational Narrative Intelligence: A Human-Centered Goal for Artificial Intelligence. AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
  13. Elgammal, A., et al. (2017). CAN: Creative Adversarial Networks, Generating “Art” by Learning About Styles and Deviating from Style Norms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1706.07068.
  14. Goodfellow, I., et al. (2014). Generative Adversarial Nets. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 27.
  15. Gatys, L. A., Ecker, A. S., & Bethge, M. (2016). Image Style Transfer Using Convolutional Neural Networks. CVPR.
  16. Huang, S., & Rust, R. T. (2021). Artificial Intelligence in Service. Journal of Service Research, 24(1), 127-132.
  17. Rohrbeck, R., & Schwarz, J. O. (2013). The Value Contribution of Strategic Foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(8), 1593-1606.
  18. University of Houston. (2020). Strategic Foresight Certificate. University of Houston.
  19. Châtel-Innocenti, P. (2024). Deus Ex Urbana. Project link.
  20. Châtel-Innocenti, P. (2024). Deus Ex Urbana. Project link.
  21. Dunne, A., & Raby, F. (2013). Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, and Social Dreaming. MIT Press.
  22. McCloud, S. (1993). Understanding Comics: The Invisible Art. HarperCollins.
  23. Châtel-Innocenti, P. (2024). LithiGEO: Echoes of an Industrial Future. Project link.
  24. Kirby, D. (2010). The Future is Now: Diegetic Prototypes and the Role of Popular Films in Generating Real-world Technological Development. Social Studies of Science, 40(1), 41-70.
  25. Vecchiato, R., & Roveda, C. (2010). Strategic Foresight in Corporate Organizations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1527-1539.
  26. Saffo, P. (2007). Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business Review, July-August.
  27. Oxford University. (2021). Strategic Foresight Programme. University of Oxford.
  28. Stanford d.school. (2020). Design Fiction Studio. Stanford University.
  29. Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In The Handbook of Technology Foresight. Edward Elgar Publishing.
  30. Hines, A., & Bishop, P. (2013). Teaching about the Future. Palgrave Macmillan.